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In 2018, the security market sentiment was not as expected. On the one hand, the national macro level, the national fiscal policy tightened, emphasizing economic de-leverage, strict control of bank credit, and control of the land economy, resulting in a reduction in disposable income of local governments, and difficulty in obtaining loans. Large, security projects are "squeezed"; on the other hand, affected by the Sino-US trade war, it brings new challenges to the expansion of domestic manufacturers' overseas markets. At the same time, due to factors such as the capital market wait-and-see and the destocking of enterprises, the security industry is not as good as before.
At this year's Beijing Anbo meeting, we can see that in the next few years, domestic security manufacturers will focus more on the landing of new technologies, combined with the domestic economic environment in 2019 - consumer demand, investment demand, foreign demand fall, economic operation Slow down, so it is estimated that the market changes in the coming year will not change much compared with 2018. The impact of new technologies on the market structure and the discussion of new technology commercials will still be the main theme of the market.
Fission and fusion brought by artificial intelligence
In the past three years, the investment in the artificial intelligence industry has been very hot. According to statistics, the investment scale in the field of artificial intelligence has reached 12 billion yuan in 2017, and the investment scale in the first three quarters of 2018 has exceeded the total of 2016 and 2017. Computer vision is the most successful area of artificial intelligence technology. In 2018, China's computer vision field has invested more than 23 billion yuan, accounting for more than one-third of China's investment in artificial intelligence. According to the report released by China Xintong Institute in February 2018, computer vision accounted for 37% of the artificial intelligence market in China in 2017, ranking first with industry revenue of 8 billion yuan.
Security video analytics, the largest application of computer vision, accounted for 67.9% of the total in 2017. According to the Memoori research report, the global sales (including test products) of artificial intelligence-based video analytics solutions in 2017 was about 1%. $1.5 billion, and most of the solutions are from China. Although the current domestic “security + AI” has not yet been widely popularized, it is still in the initial stage of development, but from the data, China has become the benchmark for the development of the global smart video industry.
Based on the trend analysis of the combination of artificial intelligence and security industry in 2018, it is estimated that based on the integration of artificial intelligence and industrial demand in 2019, the landing of new technology will be further developed, ultra-high definition, thermal imaging, low illumination, panoramic monitoring, infrared Security technologies such as detection and platform integration and fusion technologies are integrated with new technologies such as artificial intelligence, computer vision, AR/VR, biometrics, big data, cloud computing, Internet of Things, wireless transmission, ICT, etc., and multidimensional data fusion and software definition are introduced. New business models and solutions such as schedulable intelligent algorithms and cloud-side deep integration, mainstream manufacturers have broken the boundaries of the traditional security industry, and began to build an ecosystem and platform architecture that can integrate third-party resources, with the prediction of artificial intelligence. With the integration of technology, the boundaries between industries will gradually become blurred, and urban public safety will become the largest vertical market. However, unlike traditional safe cities, it is centered on cities and faces government-type markets such as public security, transportation, and justice. The gap between industries makes data resources better.
In recent years, whether it is a product solution or a functional business, the differentiation between vendors is becoming less and less obvious. We believe that the focus of future enterprise competition will be on product quality and overall application cost, whether it is power consumption design or storage efficiency. Improvement, although it will be a basic skill, but for the user, these specific indicators and successful cases will become an important indicator to judge the pros and cons of the vendor solution.
In addition, the fiery heat of artificial intelligence investment in the past three years far exceeds people's imagination. In the past 40 years, China has been the most radical and fastest growing business practice. It has the most entrepreneurial companies in the world, but at the same time it faces the embarrassing fact that 10,000 companies start businesses every day, 97% will It died within 18 months. In the past, it may have been a mistake in the controllable areas of industry cycle, brand marketing, strategic planning, capital design, and political and business relations. However, in recent years, there have been uncontrollable factors—the ability of enterprises to digest new technologies that are changing with each passing day.
For start-ups, it is important to note that in the early stages of development combined with the industry, the high valuation of artificial intelligence is not necessarily a good thing, which will bring pressure to the corresponding companies to continue financing. At the same time, it was learned from relevant investors that starting from the second half of 2018, AI companies without industry-based foundations have become less popular. The importance of winning core technology and global competitions has become weaker, and they have independent algorithms and can continue to meet user needs. The ability to iteratively upgrade, the ability to solve practical problems in specific application scenarios, the ability of technology to improve productivity and even change production relationships on the basis of solving problems, and the real ability to achieve landing capabilities, is becoming the focus of users and capital markets.
Overseas market: Wan Muchun, the front of the diseased tree
On March 22, US President Trump signed a memorandum of president, which will impose large-scale tariffs on Chinese imports under the “301 Investigations” and restrict Chinese companies from investing in US mergers and acquisitions. The scale of Chinese goods involved in taxation is 60 billion US dollars. The main areas of US restrictions on China include: high-performance medical devices, biomedicine, new materials, agricultural machinery, industrial robots, next-generation information technology (artificial intelligence), new energy vehicles, aerospace products and high-speed rail products. In response to this trade friction, experts pointed out that in the 1970s and 1980s, Japan and the United States played nearly 20 years of trade wars, and did not cause huge damage to the Japanese economy, but the friction will be relatively long, the middle There will be more rounds. For the security industry, its impact is also very obvious. Whether it is the stock market trend of the enterprise or the overseas deployment of the product, it will form great resistance.
Although trade friction is still the biggest uncertainty in the future market, it has almost become the consensus of Chinese security companies in the development of markets such as Southeast Asia, South America and Russia. Especially in these areas, smart cities, intelligent transportation, smart retail, smart buildings and other projects are in the ascendant, and the demand in the civilian market is strong, which has become the best fertile ground for Chinese brands to expand their market territory.
Customers, channels, logistics, after-sales and other issues have been a problem for China's security enterprises. However, as overseas markets allow enterprises to achieve high-efficiency growth in revenue growth, more and more companies continue to optimize supply chains by establishing supply centers. Manage and enhance global product delivery capabilities and after-sales service capabilities. At the same time, in the global marketing network, enterprises have also made corresponding adjustments in improving the localization operation and service capabilities of overseas subsidiaries and optimizing the revenue structure, further reducing the operating costs.
Therefore, even if the current trade friction is affected, it is still one of the priorities of the company to actively promote overseas policies compared to the domestically saturated competition environment. In addition, security companies should pay close attention to the country's go-out strategy, such as the latest developments in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), to seize better opportunities.
AI ecology promotes changes in market structure
In recent years, with the full integration of IT intelligence technology and manufacturing industry, under the increasingly open system, the traditional and closed industries have gradually opened up, embracing the ecological environment, and the security industry is one of them. Perhaps last year, there was still a lack of understanding of the ecological system architecture or the closed-loop model of the industrial chain, but in this year, companies with artificial intelligence technology in the industry have opened up their technology and built a technology platform to build a smart ecosystem. Let enterprises lacking R&D capabilities quickly transform into security artificial intelligence enterprises by relying on these platforms. We believe that the construction of the industry and the ecosystem, the completion of the closed-loop boom is mainly determined by two factors:
First, users in the security market are not concentrated, product applications are scattered, and customers are customized. It is difficult to truly meet the needs of customer fragmentation and develop response to rapid delivery capabilities. Especially in the era of artificial intelligence, the value and influence that can be derived will far exceed the era of networking, IT, and cloudization in the past, but most enterprises are limited by the technical capabilities and scope, and can only provide Fragmented solution;
Second, with the integration of technology, the boundaries between security and other industries are blurring. The market has also emerged as a leading algorithm vendor and industry-focused application vendor. These new roles have broken the traditional situation of providing solutions from one vendor, and are also spawning. The birth of various types of ecological partners.
The current ecology and platform construction can bring significant benefits to small businesses or startups in the early stage, but if they only stagnate in current algorithms and applications, they are highly likely to be replaced. For the leading enterprises of platform and ecology, the era of product king is over, and it is necessary to find a new "moat" in the new era, to deal with new industrial challengers, from end-to-end integrated solutions to systematic transformation. Really improve integration delivery, business consulting, industry empowerment. Therefore, the degree of openness of the platform will also be the key to inter-ecological competition and success.
In terms of current market acceptance, more and more people are beginning to recognize such practices. If all vendors provide services from the application to the terminal, it is not a good thing for the user. For example, if the system is not open, the user needs a new business solution, and whether the implementation is directly linked to the capability of the manufacturer, but if It is a fully open module that can avoid such problems, because users can choose the application developers that are most suitable for them, so as to avoid being priced by a company.
In 2018, confusion is a true portrayal of most companies in the security industry, but as long as they can survive, it is worthy of praise. After all, the current direction of choice is correct, and enterprises are still operating in the law and logic of industry development. In 2019, the market environment may be further severe. After all, the war of AI empowerment is the comprehensive strength of platforms, technologies, scenarios, and ecology.
Everything has cracks, and that is where light comes in. In the past year, thanks to the unremitting efforts of the company, we are very pleased to see the security companies maintain steady growth. Artificial intelligence is the driving force for further “realization” of the Internet of Things, big data and cloud technology. If enterprises seize the opportunity of technological change and provide users with more valuable and quantifiable services, they can break through the haze and usher in a new light. .